Jumping to conclusions bias: How our minds actually work

I’ve been reading a book called Thinking: Fast and Slow by Dr Daniel Kahneman who is a Psychologist and won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. His findings challenge the assumption that human rationality prevails in economic judgement.

Worldview Orbit

It could be said that every worldview has an orbit, a stable and continuous path through which adherents travel that is unaffected as long as there is no external influence. The Christadelphian worldview is no exception and those immersed in the Christadelphian echo chamber will live out their lives in the Christadelphian orbit. Outside that echo chamber things get a little more interesting and, as I’ve previously noted, our conscious minds are biased towards maintaining the orbit we are already in. But occasionally people will find themselves in an unstable orbit for one reason or another, and that is when their worldview can change – and it can change in one of two ways: falling back to earth with a bump or spinning off and becoming lost in space.

Towering Mountains of Ignorance

It's a bit of a slow start, but bear with it. The second half is excellent.

Action Science

I work in the upstream oil and gas industry and over the last few years the Society of Petroleum Engineers has generated some great discussion about decision making under uncertainty. This is a very relevant topic for an industry that excels in extracting oil from harsh environments in hard to reach locations and from politically challenging regions. The extraction of oil requires international, multi-company, multi-agency, multi-discipline, mega projects costing hundreds of millions of dollars to achieve its goals. All this leads to a high level of uncertainty around project outcomes and a requirement for good decisions to be made with limited knowledge.